Alfie LVI
Since evolving from the Brexit Party in 2021, Reform UK has seen significant growth in popularity, particularly since Nigel Farage’s return to party leadership in June 2024. The Party now claims to have surpassed Labour in membership with over 270,000 paid-up members, whilst also boasting 28% of voting intention in recent YouGov opinion polls. With the backdrop of an electorally vulnerable Labour government in place, this suggests that come the next general election, which may well be sooner than 2029, Reform may have the backing of nearly ⅓ of the UK population.
In contrast, the Conservative Party has fallen from the dizzy heights of governing Britain, whether alone or in a coalition, for ⅔ of the last century, to the serious threat of extinction. Whilst the reasons for this decline vary, such as the perceived poor performances of recent Conservative governments (despite extenuating circumstances such as a global pandemic), it is impossible to ignore the Tories’ poor performances in British politics since the last general election. In 2024, the party won only 121/650 seats, marking their worst result in a general election in the party’s 200 year history. In mid-2025, the Conservatives fell to fourth place in the polls with a meagre 16% in the opinion polls. Last May, the Tories lost 676 councillors and 16 councils in local elections, as well as ‘True Blue’ Buckinghamshire, which the party had never lost before. Indicative of the extent of the party’s decline is Sir Jeremy Hunt, a former Tory Chancellor and current MP’s, dire evaluation – ‘the Conservatives cannot rule out becoming extinct’ (per Times Radio).
Based on the current situation of both the Conservative Party and Reform UK, many would argue that any form of coalition before or after the next general election would only serve the interests of the Tories without much reward for Reform. But a potential merger between the parties – preferably before the next general election to avoid one party dictating the terms of a coalition – could be of substantial benefit to both parties.
The overlaps in party policies are simply too apparent and pervasive to ignore. The parties have presented similar policies in their 2024 manifestos regarding lowering taxes, improving law enforcement and increasing defence and security spending. Regarding the issue of mass immigration to the UK, which 51% of the UK population believe is the most important issue facing the country at this time, both parties have expressed a desire to leave the ECHR as well as ending the use of asylum hotels and supporting the deportation of illegal migrants and foreign criminals. Particularly significant is the fact that leaving the ECHR was not part of the Conservative Party’s 2024 manifesto and was only announced by Kemi Badenoch in October 2025, with the adoption of a policy uncharacteristic to the Conservatives laying grounds for potential further agreements between the UK’s two major right-wing parties.
Despite the key areas of agreement between the parties regarding policy focus, it would be remiss to look over points of disagreement which could threaten the likelihood of a potential coalition. Whilst Reform wants to scrap net zero commitments entirely – with the Deputy Leader, Richard Tice, labelling it ‘‘net stupid zero’’ on numerous occasions – Kemi Badenoch’s party are still committed to net zero targets, albeit with the adoption of a more pragmatic approach. Reform UK has also presented more radical spending plans than the Tories in some areas, e.g. by claiming that they could find another £50 billion in savings just by cutting down on government ‘waste’ and the civil service; a claim that lacks fiscal credibility. Nigel Farage’s party has also taken a more far-right, populist stance than the Conservatives regarding culture and social policy, advocating a ‘patriotic curriculum’ and scrapping ‘woke’ culture in schools, as well as repealing certain equality legislations such as the Equality Act. However, I believe that compromises are possible in these areas. Whilst it is more likely that the Conservatives will end up conceding ground to the far-right, I think it’s likely that both parties would look for a solution to suit everyone’s interests.
The most significant obstacle to unity, however, lies in Reform’s desire for major constitutional change. The prospect of the House of Lords being made an elected second chamber would not only discourage a Conservative agreement but would also repel many previously Tory voters, due to the gridlock caused by both chambers having a democratic mandate, thus removing the Commons’ primacy and possibly weakening the Lords’ renowned scrutinising functions. Moreover, Reform’s proposal of electoral reform may well cause conflict with the Conservatives, who have traditionally favoured the current First-Past-the-Post system. It’s no surprise that Farage’s party are striving for a more proportional system at Westminster, with Farage himself having experienced a disproportional outcome in the 2015 general election, where his UKIP gained 4 million votes but only 1 seat in the Commons. Electoral reform would also align with Reform’s populist appeals, with half of Britons supporting the introduction of proportional representation and just 26% backing FPTP. Finding common ground on constitutional reform could therefore prove to be a sticking point in right-wing relations. An agreement without compromise would challenge each party’s fundamental principle; the Conservatives would either have to accept major constitutional change or Reform would have to leave the constitution in its current form. I suspect that the Conservatives would be more likely to prevail on this issue if negotiations for a merger between the parties took place, due to the difficulties of amending the UK constitution.
Ultimately, the future for the major right-wing parties in British politics depends on strategic realism and a willingness to co-operate. A fragmentation of the right would only serve to benefit Labour in the next general election, and a right-wing coalition would provide Reform UK and the Conservative Party with the ability to serve their interests: for the Conservatives, a lifeline from the threat of extinction and for Reform, a foothold in British politics and possibly Farage’s ticket to Downing Street. Yes, logistical complexities remain. Questions over who would spearhead this coalition, with two forthright and ideologically rigid leaders in Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, could prove to be this coalition’s hubris. But as the next general election draws closer, one poker face will almost certainly begin to twitch – otherwise it would be political suicide for the UK’s right-wing parties. Reform UK and the Conservative Party are therefore faced with a stark choice: divide and lose, or unite and win. I predict the latter may well prove to be the case.