Brexit has arguably strengthened the integrationist agenda\nwithin the EU. This agenda has fallen away somewhat since its surge after the\nend of the Cold War, which saw rapid enlargement and the birth of the single\ncurrency. Now a new generation of politicians has replaced the likes of Juncker\nand Tusk in Brussels, and they may resuscitate the mission of ever closer\nunion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the end of this decade, the EU will be well on the way to\ntax harmonisation, fiscal integration, and a far more centralised foreign\npolicy which may include unified military command and policing agencies.\nBritain, always the one great power within the bloc that vetoed further pooling\nof sovereignty in these areas, is now out of the way. The Berlin-Paris axis could\nnow re-assert itself in leading a major consolidation of the EU, steering a\npath from the confederal arrangements of today towards the proto-super-state of\n2030. This certainly is what President Macron of France has advocated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And where Berlin, Paris and their allies will be the pull\nfactor, there will be three big push factors in operation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first and most obvious of these is that, if the single\ncurrency is to survive and function properly, there will need to be greater\ninstitutionalised oversight of the fiscal policy of all member states. The\nbudgetary incontinence of Greece nearly brought the whole system down last\ndecade. That crisis was papered over by inter-governmental action, supported by\nthe IMF and by expansive monetary action at the European Central Bank. If a\nsimilar crisis erupts again, the response may yet be a far more robust\nbudgetary intrusion into member states by the European Commission. This could\ninclude dictating precise levels of government borrowing and taxation. A single\ncurrency cannot really exist in a stable condition without a unitary fiscal framework.\nThe creation of the Euro placed monetary authority in Frankfurt. Another crisis\nmay yet place firm fiscal authority in Brussels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The second factor is the dormant but ongoing threat of mass\nimmigration from the middle East and Africa. There is no way that European\nmember states can absorb immigration waves like that of 2015 long-term. There\nsimply has to be a far more coordinated policy at the centre to deal with this,\nor states like Hungary and Austria, feeling themselves overwhelmed and dictated\nto, may even quit the union. There needs to be an EU border force, and probably\nan internal EU police force similar to the FBI in America. Organised crime,\ndrug and people trafficking require similar responses and may lead to the same\ndevelopments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finally, with question marks over the solidity of the NATO\nAtlantic alliance, and with Russia attempting to divide its opponents in\nEurope, the EU may yet seek to develop a far more coordinated and centralised\nforeign policy than it has as yet, and one which includes hard as well as soft\npower. This may have to include a European military command, something that the\nBritish always blocked because they saw it as a French attempt to undermine the\nAtlantic alliance. But the British do not have a say any more. It can even be\nargued that NATO is failing to deal with some of the \u201casymmetric\u201d threats posed\nby Russia and other states and non-state actors \u2013 cyber warfare, political\nde-stabilisation and the like. The European Union at its core is built around\nthe values of western liberal democracy. If those are under threat then they\nmust be defended. It is high time that the EU had the capability to defend what\nit stands for without necessarily looking across the Atlantic. It is likely to\nremain in firm alliance with the Americans, but without relying on an American\nsecurity umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is doubtful that these trends towards EU integration will\nfollow some grand plan. It is more likely that they will develop piecemeal, through\npragmatic and often urgent responses to challenges as and when they arise. Yet\nby developing in this organic way, they will probably prove more durable and\nrobust than if they were produced to any contrived blueprint, like the failed\n2005 EU draft constitution. And if the EU does integrate in a more stable\ndirection, then that should be a good thing for the world, and a good thing for\nits closest and most important neighbour and partner, Great Britain. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"